Brexit spurs international interest in U.S. Commercial Real Estate

July 13, 2016

NEW YORK – July 12, 2016 – As the fallout from Brexit continues to stir market volatility, many international investors seek the security and economic stability of the U.S. commercial real estate market. Coupled with low interest rates for loans, brokers who belong to the CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Member) Institute are seeing an increase in global activity in commercial real estate investments from primary gateway cities to tertiary markets.

The CCIM Institute is one of the largest international networks of commercial real estate professionals.

“The trend of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) net inflows of capital toward the U.S. commercial real estate market will remain strong and the Brexit initial ripple effect for demand in the U.S. will initially increase as investors seek security,” says Kamil Homsi, CCIM, president of Global Realty Capital LLC in New York City. “Additionally, I see the demand increasing constantly to acquire senior and student housing, self-storage portfolios, and medical facilities across all regions.”

Interest rates in the U.S. are likely to remain low, and U.S. benchmark yields hit record lows last week. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged to a record low of 2.098 percent before recovering to 2.12 percent. And the 10-year Treasury closed below 1.4 percent for the first time, falling to 1.367 percent.

The continuing European market uncertainty, declining British pound and strengthening of U.S. dollar make it less likely that the Federal Reserve will move rates up or take other tightening measures this year. That has far reaching implications for U.S. commercial real estate markets.

“Commercial office space is often the preferred investment for overseas investors,” says Ernest Brown IV, CCIM, broker at Rohde Ottmers Siegel Realty in San Antonio, Texas. “But we also are seeing an increase in demand for well-located newer industrial assets for warehousing, distribution and service.”

The historic stability and low volatility, even within the presence of low cap rate markets, will continue to drive foreign investment into the U.S. commercial real estate market. This will drive up prices and lower cap rates for commercial buildings in several cities according to Reis Analytics. Primary gateway cities including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Boston will see the most impact, but secondary and tertiary markets also stand to see increased activity because investors have yet to drive up prices.

“Shortly after Brexit, I received several calls from international investors seeking more information about Texas commercial real estate,” says Jim Young, CCIM, broker at Longbow Real Estate Group in Austin, Texas. “In addition, several U.K. investors tell me that they see U.S. commercial real estate as a safe haven. Given low interest rates on commercial real estate loans and commercial rental rates in Central Texas that continue to rise, there will be even more of an uptick in European and global investor activity.”

While some U.S. assets may be sold to shore up assets held in Great Britain and elsewhere by foreign investors, the long-term goal is the safety of the investment. Historically, foreign investors rarely take their capital out of the U.S. commercial real estate market unless there is a major drop in valuation within European gateway cities. This is unlikely due to limited available inventory, time needed and European Union exit tax complexities.

Brexit further complicates the matter with increased uncertainty.

“Investments in the U.S. will only get stronger as a result of these factors,” says Eric Rutherford, CCIM, broker at Wright Kingdom in Boulder, Colo. “Individuals in the European market may take a risk and reinvest, but I just received word from a group of investors pouring $10 million into the U.S.”

The U.S. has always been a safe haven for global investors. With the continued repercussions of Brexit yet to be fully realized, many foreign investors actively seek to reposition their assets to a stable economy. The increased activity in U.S. commercial real estate properties by global investors looks to continue.

© 2016 Florida Realtors®

 


Home sales and taxes: How much will you owe?

June 22, 2016

NEW YORK – June 21, 2016 – One of the questions readers ask most often is how much of their gain will go to Uncle Sam if they sell their home. Tax rules are highly favorable for homeowners. Most sellers wind up owing no capital-gains tax on their profits, according to a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.

However, there are important exceptions, such as for those with exceptionally large gains who live in high-tax areas.

Married couples filing jointly typically can exclude as much as $500,000 of the gain on the sale of their primary residence. Singles can exclude up to $250,000. In most cases, they can qualify for the maximum exclusion amount if they have owned their home – and used it as their main home – for at least two of the five years before the sale date.

Sellers who do not qualify for the maximum exclusion still may be eligible for major relief depending on several factors, such as why they sold – like a work-related move, health reason or unforeseeable events.

Source: Wall Street Journal (06/12/16) Herman, Tom

© Copyright 2016 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD


Americans Are Feeling Wealthier, More Upbeat

June 17, 2016

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index zoomed to an all-time high in May as consumers get more upbeat about their paychecks and home selling. In May, the index reached a reading of 85.3, which follows an 18-month low reached in March.

Three of six components the index measures registered increases last month, led by a 7 percentage point increase in the number of consumers reporting significantly higher income than a year ago. Also, the number of consumers who expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months rose 5 percentage points. Consumers were also upbeat that mortgage rates would decrease over the next year as well.

That said, the index indicator on whether it’s a “good time to buy” dropped 1 percentage point to an all-time survey low in May.

“Continued home price appreciation has been squeezing housing affordability, driving a two-year downward trend in the share of consumers who think it’s a good time to buy a home,” says Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The current low mortgage rate environment has helped ease this pressure, and fewer than half of consumers expect rates to go up in the next year. While the May increase in income growth perceptions could provide further support to prospective home buyers as the spring/summer homebuying season gains momentum, the effect may be muted by May’s discouraging jobs report.”

Here’s a closer look at additional findings from Fannie Mae’s latest index reading:

  • 29 percent of Americans say now is a good time to buy a home, a drop of 1 percentage point from March and an all-time survey low for the second consecutive month.
  • 52 percent of consumers believe now is a good time to sell a home – an all-time survey high.
  • 42 percent of Americans believe that home prices will go up.
  • 72 percent of Americans say they are not concerned with losing their job, a drop of 2 percentage points from March.
  • 18 percent of Americans say their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago, up 7 percentage points from March and at an all-time survey high.

Source: Fannie Mae


Fla.’s recent housing success

June 7, 2016

NEW YORK – June 6, 2016 – Clear Capital’s Home Data Index (HDI) Market Report releases recent and granular data each month. The HDI Market Report provides insights into housing price trends and other leading indices for the real estate market at the national and local levels.

Florida’s markets continue to recover from the devastating lows of the housing market crash, and an increase in baby boomers provides key insight into the market’s future, according to Clear Capital.

Survey results

  • Regionally, the West continues to dominate quarterly growth as it hovers around a 1.1 percent quarter-over-quarter price increase, though that’s a downtick of 0.1 percent from last month. Growth rates in the South remain unchanged at 0.7 percent quarter-to-quarter growth, while Northeast and Midwest regional growth continues to lag behind the rest of the nation at 0.1 percent.
  • Nationally, quarterly market performance remains fixed at 0.6 percent with no change month-to-month.
  • The Seattle and Tampa MSAs tied for the top spot on the Highest Performing Major Metro Markets for June, each reporting a quarter-to-quarter price increase of 2.0 percent.
  • Tampa isn’t the only Sunshine State metro area to make the high-performers list. It also includes Orlando (1.7 percent quarterly price growth), Jacksonville (1.7 percent quarterly price growth), and Miami (1.4 percent quarterly price growth).

The most recent quarterly growth figures for the Floridian markets fit into a longer-term pattern of growth and recovery for the state, according to Clear Capital, and each major MSA has “experienced incredible gains since the market lows of 2011, recovering at least 30 percent or more of the individual market value.”

Jacksonville and Orlando home prices have increased 33 percent and 44 percent respectively; Tampa and Miami home prices have skyrocketed by almost 56 percent and 57 percent, respectively.

The baby boomer influence

Clear Capital compared Census Bureau data on baby boomer moves to the price increase from its index, calling the growth in both an “interesting phenomenon that may be contributing to the stellar price growth in the region.”

The most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that this segment of the market – homeowners aged 55 to 74 – has increased more than 2.5X the overall population of homeowners in each of the top four Florida markets since 2011. In Miami and Jacksonville, the increase in homeowners of this generation is more than 500 percent greater than the overall increase in the total population of homeowners.

“It’s evident that the baby boomer demand for housing in the (price growth metro areas) is a significant contributing factor in the market’s overall success,” the report concludes. “In Orlando, the trend is quite similar as the ratio of baby boomer homeownership growth to overall homeownership growth is over 400 percent.”

“Florida has traditionally been regarded as prime real estate by those retirees who may be looking to migrate from colder areas of the nation such as the Northeast to a warmer and sunnier alternative for their golden years,” says Alex Villacorta, Ph.D., vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

“As the top Floridian housing markets continue to grow and return impressive price gains – Tampa is currently reporting 12.2 percent annual price growth – it’s no surprise that this generation continues to invest in real estate in the region,” he adds. “The baby boomer share of homeowners is clearly on the rise here, and as more and more of this generation nears retirement age, Florida markets may be in for a boost in performance if tradition continues and retirees demand homes in the region.”

© 2016 Florida Realtors®


Banks rush to offer 3% downpayment loans

June 1, 2016

NEW YORK – May 31, 2016 – As some banks veer from Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, they’re offering their own low downpayment mortgages to appeal to home shoppers struggling to save enough to buy a home. Wells Fargo made headlines this week when it debuted its 3 percent downpayment loan.

JPMorgan Chase also announced its offering called the “Standard Agency 97percent” program, a 3 percent down payment loan geared for first-time home buyers and requires a FICO score of 680. Chase also has a loan program called “DreaMaker Mortgage,” which offers a 5 percent down payment – 3 percent of which can come from the borrower as well as flexible funding options for closing costs and reduced mortgage insurance requirements.

Other banks have recently announced their low downpayment offerings.

Earlier this year, Bank of America began offering a 3 percent downpayment loan that did not involve the Federal Housing Administration and does not require mortgage insurance. The bank requires a minimum FICO score of 660.

Wells Fargo’s newly launching lending program, “yourFirstMortgage,” requires a 620 FICO minimum score and minimum downpayment of 3 percent for a fixed-rate conventional mortgage of up to $417,000. Downpayment assistance also can come from gifts and community assistance programs. Customers who complete a homebuyer education course can earn a 1/8 percent interest rate reduction, although the course is not required.

Brad Blackwell, executive vice president and portfolio business manager at Wells Fargo, says the monthly payment for the loan will be less than a government-insured FHA loan.

“We’ve taken all the complexity of the home mortgage lending process, removed it from the front-line consumer, so that it’s easy for them to understand and Wells Fargo is taking care of all the capital markets and other types of complexities behind the scenes,” says Blackwell.

Bank giants have been leery of FHA loans lately, with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s calling FHA lending “too costly and too risky” to pursue extensively.

“We have dramatically reduced FHA originations,” Dimon wrote in his yearly letter to shareholders. “Currently, it simply is too costly and too risky to originate these kinds of mortgages. Part of the risk comes from the penalties that the government charges if you make a mistake – and part of the risk is because these types of mortgages default frequently.”

Dimon acknowledges Chase’s new low downpayment lending program also carries some of those risks, but he believes it responds to customers’ needs.

“Mortgages are important to our customers,” Dimon wrote in the letter. “For most of our customers, their home is the single largest purchase they will make in their lifetime. More than that, it is an emotional purchase – it is where they are getting their start, raising a family or maybe spending their retirement years. As a bank that wants to build lifelong relationships with its customers, we want to be there for them at life’s most critical junctures.”

Source: “Wells Fargo Launches 3% Down Payment Mortgage,” CNBC (May 26, 2016) and “Chase Quietly Launches Its Own 3% Down Mortgage Lending Program,” HousingWire (May 26, 2016)

© Copyright 2016 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688


Pending home sales at a 10-year high

May 27, 2016

WASHINGTON – May 26, 2016 – Pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month in April and reached their highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

All major regions saw gains in contract activity last month except for the Midwest, which saw a meager decline.

The Pending Home Sales Index – a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings for homes that have not yet sold – hiked 5.1 percent higher to 116.3 in April from an upwardly revised 110.7 in March. Year-to-year, it’s 4.6 percent above April 2015 (111.2).

After last month’s gain, the index has now increased year-over-year for 20 consecutive months. Vast gains in the South and West propelled April’s pending sales in April to its highest level since February 2006 (117.4), says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

“The ability to sign a contract on a home is slightly exceeding expectations this spring, even with the affordability stresses and inventory squeezes affecting buyers in a number of markets,” Yun says. “The building momentum from the over 14 million jobs created since 2010 and the prospect of facing higher rents and mortgage rates down the road appear to be bringing more interested buyers into the market.”

Mortgage rates have remained below 4 percent in 16 of the past 17 months, but Yun says it remains to be seen how long they will stay this low. Along with rent growth, rising gas prices – and the fading effects of last year’s cheap oil on consumer prices – could edge up inflation and push rates higher. For now, Yun foresees mortgage rates continuing to hover around 4 percent in coming months, but inflation could potentially surprise the market and cause rates to increase suddenly.

“Even if rates rise soon, sales have legs for further expansion this summer if housing supply increases enough to give buyers an adequate number of affordable choices during their search,” adds. Yun.

Following the housing market’s best first quarter of existing-sales since 2007 (5.66 million) and a decent increase (1.7 percent) in April, Yun expects sales this year to climb above earlier estimates and be around 5.41 million – a 3.0 percent boost from 2015. After accelerating to 6.8 percent a year ago, national median existing-home price growth is forecast to slightly moderate to between 4 and 5 percent.

Pending sales in the Northeast climbed 1.2 percent to 98.2 in April, and are now 10.1 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest, the index declined slightly (0.6 percent) to 112.9 in April, but it’s still 2.0 percent above April 2015.

Pending home sales in the South jumped 6.8 percent to an index of 133.9 in April – 5.1 percent higher than last April. The index in the West soared 11.4 percent in April to 106.2, and it’s now 2.8 percent above a year ago.

© 2016 Florida Realtors®


FHA may be reopening doors to condo financing

May 24, 2016

WASHINGTON – May 23, 2016 – Could the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) finally be opening its doors again to financing more condominium units? If so, that could be excellent news for young, first-time buyers and for seniors who own condo units and need a reverse mortgage to supplement their post-retirement incomes.

Here’s why: FHA financing offers not only 3.5 percent minimum downpayments but is far more lenient than other options on crucial issues such as credit scores and debt-to-income ratios. Plus FHA is the dominant source of insured reverse mortgages – the only game in town for the vast majority of seniors.

But if a condo building is not certified as eligible for financing by FHA, all the individual units in the project are ineligible for mortgage financing as well. Young families can’t buy using FHA loans, sellers can’t sell and seniors can’t tap their equity through a reverse mortgage. It used to be different – for years FHA allowed so-called “spot” loans on individual units – but no more.

But maybe things are about to change. In a speech last week to the National Association of Realtors, Housing and Urban Development secretary Julian Castro said revisions to controversial FHA rules on condos have been completed and only await final Obama administration approval. The changes would simplify controversial certification procedures for condo buildings and amend other rules that have knocked thousands of condominium buildings out of eligibility.

Since adopting highly restrictive qualification rules early in the current administration, FHA – once a major player in the condo field and the go-to source of financing for moderate-income purchasers – has steadily seen its market share shrink. FHA once financed 80,000 to 90,000 condo units a year, but last year volume fell below 23,000. Many condo homeowner associations began losing their eligibility several years ago, and because of what they consider onerous recertification requirements, have never sought to reapply.

Castro provided no details on what changes are coming. But real estate and condo industry sources say they could build upon reforms announced last November that appear to have had at least modest success in encouraging condo homeowner boards to get onboard again.

Two California-based consultants who help associations and community managers work through the certification hoops told me they have seen a jump in activity in recent weeks. Condo boards that had been resistant to the FHA rules “aren’t fighting them as much any more,” said Natalie Stewart, president of FHA Review. “People need to sell their homes, people need to buy” affordable condo units, so some associations grudgingly are returning to the FHA fold.

Jon Eberhardt, president of Condo Approvals, LLC, said “we certainly have seen an uptick” in FHA certification applications. “I wouldn’t call it monumental, simply a steady growth” in the wake of last November’s changes, he added.

Dawn Bauman, senior vice president for government affairs at the Community Associations Institute, a Virginia-based group that represents 33,000-plus condo and homeowner associations and managers, confirmed that she’s also detected “an increase in the number of applicants” for condo certification and that regional FHA offices have been “more flexible” in recent months in evaluating applications.

What will be crucial to continuing the positive trend, industry experts say, is for the upcoming guidelines to make changes beyond simply streamlining condo certifications.

On the list of needed reforms:

  • The return of spot loans. That alone would significantly expand opportunities for millennials, minorities and seniors.
  • An end to FHA’s blanket prohibitions against community-benefit homeowner transfer fees collected by some condo associations when units change hands. In California, this ban alone has led to the loss of thousands of units from FHA financing – a huge problem in areas where affordability is tough and condos are the lowest-cost alternative for many consumers.
  • Relaxation of strict limits on commercial space in residential condo properties. Revenues from commercial leases are important to the financial health of urban condominiums, but current FHA caps render many buildings ineligible.

Copyright © 2016 the Boston Herald, Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.